Grace Branshaw, Daniel Seredensky and Aidan Clancy

Abstract:

In this study we introduced a model to represent the spread of Marburg Virus Disease (MVD) in a population of humans by splitting the course of the disease into different compartments. We derived a formula for the basic reproduction number using the Next Generation Matrix Method. We then simulated the proposed model with data collected from MVD outbreaks and found that the basic reproduction number is very sensitive to changes in the rate of infection. We concluded that measures such as isolation of sick individuals, proper use of personal protective equipment, limiting time in bat infected caves and safe burial practices are all effective responses to an MVD outbreak. Our results show that while Marburg has a very high fatality rate, it does not spread very easily. They also show that usage of proper interventions can lead to a shorter outbreak, saving many lives, if not, many will be affected and the outbreak can last several years.